Base Residual Auctions

PJM's Base Residual Auction (BRA) is its annual capacity auction; four are now in the books, for delivery years 2025/26 through 2028/29. This tab carries the verified record of those four auctions: what was paid, what it bought, and what counting winter right would have been worth.

The verified four-auction record: every cell traces to a primary source, and the derived exhibits state their methods on the exhibit.

What's in it

Auction cells are verified against PJM's four BRA reports and the IMM's published analyses; the surplus and real-terms exhibits are derived, with their methods stated on the exhibits; counterfactual requirement deltas are our engine solves, explained on the Model Adjustments tab. The backstop procurement model lives on the Emergency Auction tab.

How we do it

  1. 1.Verify the record. Every four-auction cell traces to a PJM or IMM primary source; derived columns state their arithmetic.
  2. 2.Correct the winter count. Each auction re-clears with the two winter adjustments applied; the pairing exhibits draw the walk and the ledger carries the dollars.
Full methodology
Auction record: auctions-history-2026-08-11.json (research provenance in its header).

Source: PJM published 2028/29 planning parameters and posted ELCC ratings, reconstructed and verified by SemiAnalysis | Last updated: August 2026